Ryan’s Atlanta Confidence Ranking Picks

1) Joey Logano – Joey Logano is a good fantasy NASCAR pick to win at Atlanta. With much of the competition starting in the back he’s got a huge advantage this week. On Sunday Joey Logano will start on the pole. This race has been won from that starting position 13.1% percent of the time. At Atlanta Joey Logano doesn’t have a great overall track record but since he’s been at Penske Racing he’s been an elite performer. Last year Logano had one of the best cars. He started in 14th, finished 14th, had a 6th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. It’s important to note his 14th place finish is deceiving because he had top 3 potential. A key moment for him in the race which could’ve potentially won it for him was a mistake on pit road during green flag pit stops that were interrupted by a caution. He completed his stop and would’ve cycled into the lead except his crew failed to fill up his car with gas. That meant he had to come in again during the caution which dropped him to 7th. Before that round of pit stops started he was running in 2nd. Then late in the race during the first Green-White-Checker restart he was running in 6th but got caught up in Kevin Harvick’s wreck which damaged his car and led to his mediocre result. In 2013 Joey Logano had one of the best cars. In that event he earned the best driver rating, led the second most laps and finished 2nd. Last season at intermediate tracks Joey Logano was arguably the best performer in the series. Look for Joey Logano to be one of the drivers to beat on Sunday.
Starting Position – 1st
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been provided
Odds To Win – 8/1

2) Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing thrives at Atlanta and I think Denny Hamlin will be one of the drivers to beat. In Happy Hour he had the best 10 lap average. In general at intermediate tracks the more tire wear comes into play the better Hamlin performs. Over the last few Atlanta races a solid case could be made that Denny Hamlin has been the strongest performer in the series. Last year he was one of the main contenders finishing 3rd, earning the 3rd best driver rating and leading 37 laps. The year before that he had an off-race and had multiple problems which led to a very poor result. In 2012 he led 105 laps and raced his way to victory lane. At the end of the 2014 season Hamlin was one of the strongest drivers at 1.5 mile tracks. In the Chase at tracks of this length he finished in the top ten every race and had a 7.8 average finish. With him having such a strong car and his competitors starting in the back you can expect Hamlin to be in the mix all afternoon.
Starting Position – 4th
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been provided.
Odds To Win – 10/1

3) Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick was the best default fantasy NASCAR pick to win at Atlanta until his engine blew up. That really put him in a big hole but he has a fast car and he’s confident he’ll run well. In 2001 Harvick won his first race here. Since then he hasn’t returned to victory lane but he’s performed like a fantasy ace. Last year he had the dominant car but was denied the victory due to slow pit stops, a few outside lane restart issues and then at the end while running in 4th he got collected in a wreck. If he didn’t have those problems he probably could’ve led the event from the start to the finish. In the race he earned the best driver rating, best PROS ranking, had a 2nd place average running position, led 195 laps and finished 19th. In 2013 he had a good car. He started in 30th, had an 8th place average running position and finished 9th. Also in that race he earned the 5th best driver rating. In 2012 Kevin Harvick arguably had the best car at Atlanta. He started in 24th and drove up to the lead on lap #135. In the race he led 101 laps, earned the 2nd best driver rating and had a 4th place average running position. He had a good chance to win but with about 100 laps to go he lost the lead off pit road and never appeared to be as strong. When the checkered flag waved he finished 5th. In 2011 he finished 7th. In fall 2010 he had vibration issues but prior to that event he had three straight top tens. One of the main attributes I like about Harvick is how strong he was at 1.5 mile tracks last year. In the Chase at tracks of this length he scored the most points and had a 4.2 average finish.
Starting Position – 2nd (going to the back due to an engine change)
Chassis Selection – In 2014 this chassis was stout at every venue it visited. It won at Darlington, Phoeinx, was the car to beat at Dover (problems) and was fast at Las Vegas (problems).
Odds To Win – 6/1

4) Jeff Gordon – In qualifying Jeff Gordon failed to run a lap and as a result he’ll start in 35th. That’s a pretty big hole to overcome but I think he can do it. Atlanta is a driver’s track and it’s more about mechanical grip then aero grip. Look for Jeff Gordon’s strength in the race to be maintaining speed over long runs. That was a consistent trait of his last year at 1.5 mile tracks and it was especially evident at Atlanta. In the Thursday test session #2 he had the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 2nd best. Last year at Atlanta he had one of the fastest cars and was one of a few drivers who could keep up with Harvick over a long run. He started in 9th and by lap 9 he drove all the way up to 2nd. Unfortunately, his race wasn’t incident free. On lap 78 while he was running in 2nd he had a tire go down. Because of his issue he finished 17th but don’t overlook his 4th best driver rating and 2nd best PROS ranking. In the three Atlanta races prior to that event he had results of 1st, 2nd, and 6th. It should be noted his win over that stretch was the last race run under the sunlight. In Jeff Gordon’s career Atlanta has proven to be a good track for him. In 41 races he has 5 wins, 5 runner-up finishes and has had a result in the top ten 63% percent of the time. Last year at 1.5 mile tracks Gordon tied Matt Kenseth for having the most top tens.
Starting Position – 35th
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jeff Gordon will be using the car he used at Homestead last fall. It led 161 laps but late questionable pit strategy led to a 10th place finish.
Odds To Win – 6/1

5) Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson will start in the back on Sunday, but I don’t think that will slow him down too much. Every time he comes to Atlanta as long as he avoids problems he’s in the mix. At Atlanta Jimmie Johnson has three wins and has finished in the top five 52% percent of the time. Last year at Atlanta he had a good car. He started mid pack and reached the top ten in about 40 laps. From that point to the end he was a top ten mainstay. For nearly the entire second half he ran inside the top five. When the checkered flag waved he finished 4th, earned the 5th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. In 2013 and 2012 he had good cars but had problems which led to a poor result. In both the second test session and in Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 3rd best.
Starting Position – 37th
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be driving his fall Texas race winning chassis.
Odds To Win – 7/1

6) Kyle Larson – Kyle Larson is a driver who should be on your fantasy radar at Atlanta. Tire wear is high here which forces drivers to search around the track for the fastest groove. At Atlanta the fastest groove can be found up high. Running that line is a strength of Larson’s. Another factor that I think will force much of the competition up high where Larson excels is the reduction of horsepower. Theoretically (according to me) that will make drivers run high to maintain speed and if they choose not to they’ll be slower. Last year at Atlanta Kyle Larson had a good performance. He finished 8th, had an 11th place average running position and earned the 10th best PROS Ranking. The main attribute I like about Larson is how good he was at the close of the 2014 season. In the Chase races at 1.5 mile tracks he scored the 2nd most points, had a 6.2 average finish and a 10.0 average running position. Look for Kyle Larson to carry over that momentum and be a force at Atlanta.
Starting Position – 6th
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been provided
Odds To Win – 15/1

7) Kasey Kahne – Are you feeling lucky? You better be if you’re considering Kasey Kahne. He’s the definition of a hero or zero pick at Atlanta. At this venue he’s a three-time champion and has finished in the top ten 50% percent of the time. The bad news is that the other 50% percent of the time he’s finished 23rd or worse. His non-top ten average finish is 33.1. Last year at Atlanta Kasey Kahne ran well and he wheeled the 5 car to victory lane. It was a clutch performance and he overcame obstacles at the end such as retaking the lead during a Green-White-Checker. When the checkered flag waved he earned the 6th best driver rating and led 25 laps. In the four Atlanta races prior to last year Kahne had trouble in every race and finished between 23rd and 36th. In the four races prior to that stretch he had results of 1st, 4th and 7th. On Sunday Kasey Kahne will start in 10th. 79.4% percent of all Atlanta races have been won from a top ten starting position.
Starting Position – 10th
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Kasey Kahne will be using a chassis he finished 10th with last fall at Charlotte.
Odds To Win – 12/1

8) Dale Earnhardt Jr. – I expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to be very competitive at Atlanta. He has a fast car and it appears his crew chief is really pushing him to be his best which I like. This weekend I think he has a good car. He’s starting in 9th and in sessions where cars made long runs he was quick. In test session #2 on Thursday his ten lap average ranked as the 8th best. In Happy Hour on Saturday his ten lap average ranked as the 10th best. One attribute I like about Junior is that he loves to run the high-line. That should really be to his benefit this weekend. Recently at Atlanta Junior has been good. In the last three races he has an 8.7 average finish (5th best), the 14th best driver rating and a 14th place average running position. With much of his competition starting near the back he has a natural advantage heading into the weekend.
Starting Position – 9th
Chassis Selection – On Sunday Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be using a brand new chassis.
Odds To Win – 12/1

9) Carl Edwards – Look for Carl Edwards to be a contender at Atlanta. He loves this track and he embraces the challenge that the worn out surface presents. In his new #19 Joe Gibbs Racing ride I think he’ll return to fantasy relevance at these 1.5 mile tracks in a big way in 2015. From a historical perspective I’ve long viewed these as his best venues. Atlanta is a “drivers” track and he’s fared very well here throughout his career. In 2005 he out raced Jimmie Johnson to the finish line and won his first race. Since then he’s been to victory lane two more times. Also in his career at Atlanta he’s finished in the top five 53% percent of the time and in the top ten 65% percent of time. From a career perspective at Atlanta as long as he’s avoided problems he’s been a lock for a good result. One attribute I really like about Carl Edwards this week is his Joe Gibbs ride. A solid case could be made that this is JGR’s best venue. Recently this organization has been stout here with Denny Hamlin winning in 2012, Kyle Busch winning in 2013 and Matt Kenseth finishing 2nd in 2014. When you add in Carl Edwards Atlanta track prowess into the mix I wouldn’t be surprised if he wins this weekend.
Starting Position – 5th
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been provided
Odds To Win – 10/1

10) Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski will be good at Atlanta Last year he was very strong and locked like a lock for a top ten finish until multiple problems led to a poor result. His first issue was when he missed his pit stall under yellow while running in 2nd with 115 laps to go. His next issue was a blown tire with 29 laps to go while running in 4th. In 2013 Keselowski had one of the fastest cars and was a contender for the win. In that event he started in 23rd and drove into the top ten in the first 30 laps. For much of the race he ran inside the top five. Also in that race he led 29 laps but while he was leading around lap 240 his engine blew up. If his engine would’ve gone the distance there’s no doubt he would’ve been in the mix at the end. Keselowski also had a good Atlanta performance in 2012. He started in 21st and drove up into the top ten around lap 60. From that point to the conclusion he was a consistent top ten performer. He finished 3rd, earned the 6th best driver rating and had a 7th place average running position. In 2011 he finished 6th and earned the 6th best driver rating. In his first race here in 2010 he was going to have a solid top 10 finish but Carl Edwards sent him flying into the catch fence. Last year at 1.5 mile tracks he was one of the strongest competitors and a solid case could be made that he was the best. At these venues in 2014 he had 3 wins, an 8.2 average finish and led 490 laps. In practice Keselowski said he had a very drivable car. At Atlanta that’s probably just as important as speed.
Starting Position – 12th
Chassis Selection – No chassis selection information has been provided
Odds To Win – 7/1

Other Notable Contenders:

Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth was one of the main competitors who failed to make a qualifying lap on Friday and as a result he’ll start in 36th. He has a fast car though and he’ll be able to work his way up through the field. One ace up his sleeve which will help him advance in the running order is his fast pit crew. The main attribute I like about Matt Kenseth is how consistent he’s been here. Since fall 2005 he has a 7.3 average finish and hasn’t had a result worse than 13th. Also in the races over this stretch he has 7 top fives (tied for best), 10 top tens and a 10.5 average running position. Last year at Atlanta Matt Kenseth was one of the drivers who gave Harvick a run for his money. In 2014 he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had a 4th place average running position and led 53 laps. It should be noted that he did finish a little better than how he performed. Late in the race he was running around 6th but during the Green-White-Checker he took two tires which got him the lead. In 2013 he didn’t have his strongest showing but he still managed to finish 12th. In that race he started 6th, had a 16th place average running position and earned the 10th best driver rating. He ran in the top 8 for about the first 100 laps but then he started having handling issues. In the two Atlanta races prior to 2013 he had back to back 9th place finishes. In 2012 he started in 4th, had an 8th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. In 2011 he had one of the strongest cars. In that race he started 6th, had a 6th place average running position, led 64 laps and earned the 2nd best driver rating. The only downside about Matt Kenseth at Atlanta is that it holds the unique distinction of being the only intermediate track he’s never won at. Last year at 1.5 mile tracks Kenseth had a 9.9 average finish and tied Jeff Gordon for the most top tens.

Clint Bowyer – If you’re looking for somebody who’s below the radar at Atlanta consider Clint Bowyer. He’s been good here but recently he’s experienced a ton of problems which have hampered his results. Currently at Atlanta he has a four race streak of finishing 27th or worse. Last year he had an asterisk mark 38th place finish. He started in 21st and around the lap #81 caution while he was running in 17th his shifter broke which sent him to the garage. In some of Clint Bowyer’s other recent Atlanta races he was very competitive but walked away with misleading results. In 2013 Clint Bowyer was a serious contender for the win. In that event he started in 12th, earned the 4th best driver rating and led 48 laps. Unfortunately his race wasn’t incident free. While he was leading around lap 190 his engine blew up. If that didn’t happen there’s no doubt he could’ve potentially won. In 2012 Clint Bowyer had a very good car at Atlanta. Don’t be fooled by his 27th place finish. In that race he started in the rear of the field because of an engine change but didn’t stay back for long. In only 21 laps he was up to 21st. On lap #65 he cracked the top ten. The race wasn’t incident free for him though and he had multiple battery problems. On lap #184 after his second battery died he had to come in and get a new one installed. At the time he was running in 7th. In 2011 at Atlanta he started in 2nd, led 8 laps but was involved in an accident around lap 240 while he was running in 10th. His last incident free Atlanta race was in 2010 when he finished 7th. 2014 was a down year for Bowyer on this track type but I expect him to bounce back in 2015.

Ryan Newman – I fully expect Ryan Newman to contend for a good finish at Atlanta. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the top ten. His car is setup for long run speed and that’s important at Atlanta. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 9th best. In test session #2 on Thursday it ranked as the 7th best. On Sunday Newman will start in 7th. In the last two Atlanta races Newman has results of 5th and 7th. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Newman finish in the top ten on Sunday.

Jamie McMurray – Jamie McMurray has a fast car this week and he thinks his team is picking up right where they left off last year. That’s great because he was pretty good at the end of the 2014 season. On Sunday McMurray is starting up front and I think his car has good speed over long runs. In the last two Atlanta races he has results of 11th and 12th.

Paul Menard – Paul Menard might be able to sneak into a good finish. He nearly walked away with a top five last year but he got caught up in a late wreck. Intermediate tracks are also his best venues so he’s a driver who you can’t count out.